Nimba, Liberia:- The Nimba’s 2025 senatorial by-election is shaping up to be more than just a routine political contest. It is emerging as a crucial test of Vice President Jeremiah Koung’s influence in his home county and, by extension, the strength of the Movement for Democracy and Reconstruction (MDR) and the Unity party ahead of the 2029 presidential election.

With growing dissatisfaction toward the Koung-Boakai administration, new political actors are gaining ground, this election could serve as a referendum on Koung’s hold over Nimba.

The stakes are high: if MDR/UP and its backed candidate lose this election, it signals Koung’s diminishing influence in Nimba, jeopardizing his standing in the 2029 presidential race.

As of now, a total of eight candidates have declared their candidacy for the Nimba senatorial by-election. Among them, the government-backed candidate, Hon. Samuel G. Kogar, currently serving as Representative of Electoral District #5, has been the most discussed name across the county. Kogar, a three-time lawmaker, has had mixed reviews from his constituents, with many questioning his impact despite his long tenure.

Meanwhile, the CDC (Congress for Democratic Change) has yet to officially endorse a candidate, but political insiders suggest that the party is playing a strategic game by featuring three separate candidates without a formal endorsement. These include:

1. Cllr. Garrison Doldeh Yealue – Former Representative of District #4 and a major force in Gbehlay Geh and District #4, both vote-rich areas that were once Kogar’s strongholds.

2. Madam Edith Gongloe Weh – A strong candidate with deep roots in Districts #1, #2, #8, and #9, where she is expected to dominate.

3. Mack Glinwon – Former County Inspector and a political figure from District #6, which further complicates Kogar’s path to victory.

With Cllr. Yealue is back in the race, and Kogar faces a major threat. In the last senatorial election, Yealue secured over 19,000 votes before endorsing Kogar, who received over 40,000 votes. But with Yealue now running again, the electoral math suggests that Kogar could see a significant drop in support.

One of the biggest ethnic dynamics in this race centers around Madam Edith Gongloe Weh, a prominent Mano candidate. Many are asking: Will the Mano people rally behind one of their own, or will political allegiances override tribal loyalty?

Traditionally, Nimba’s politics has been shaped by the Gio-Mano divide. The MDR, under Prince Johnson and now Koung, has largely been supported by the Gio majority. But with the emergence of Madam Weh, there is a real possibility of the Mano bloc consolidating behind her.

If Madam Weh secures the expected strongholds of Districts #1, #2, #8, and #9, this could be a major setback for Kogar. The unity party attempted to counter her influence by introducing R. Mateonakay Tingban, a former Representative of District #9, into the race, hoping he could split the Mano vote. However, recent trends indicate that Tingban’s efforts have failed to gain traction, and his presence may not significantly impact Madam Weh’s numbers.

With District #7 also likely to be divided between Kogar, Weh, and Mack Glinwon, Kogar is now under mounting pressure.

What’s Really at Stake? This election is more than just a senatorial contest—it’s a battle for the political future of Nimba and the survival of MDR’s dominance in the county. If MDR’s candidate, Rep. Kogar, wins, it will reaffirm Vice President Koung’s grip on Nimba and position him as a key player for 2029.

If Cllr. Yealue performs well, it signals that Nimbians are looking for alternatives, and Koung’s influence may be declining. If Madam Weh dominates as expected, it could mark a shift toward Mano political unity and the rise of a new power bloc in Nimba.

If Mack Glinwon makes a strong showing, it will further fragment the vote and make future elections in the county even more unpredictable. With the CDC’s strategic positioning of multiple candidates and shifting alliances, this election is poised to be one of the most unpredictable and high-stakes contests in Nimba’s recent history.

What is the Bottom Line?

For Vice President Jeremiah Koung, this election is a moment of truth. The late Prince Johnson once dictated Nimba politics, but with his passing, Koung now has to prove that he can stand on his own without Johnson’s influence.

Will the government-backed Kogar hold the line for MDR or will the opposition forces led by Madam Weh, Cllr. Did Yealue and Mack Glinwon change the game?

As it stands, Nimbaians are not just voting for a senator; they’ll be voting for the future direction of their county and the political balance of Liberia.